Opening Day Roster Predictions is a five-part series where I will predict and discuss who I feel should be taking the field on the 25-man roster come Opening Day in April.
In the second installment of this series I will discuss my predictions for the five starting rotation spots. I would like to start out by saying that in my opinion the Pirates currently do not have a player who fits the normal "ace" description. I am not trying to take anything away from Paul Maholm, as he did excel as the top of our staff last season, but he is not your normal top of the rotation pitcher.
With that in mind, I am going to make my last effort at persuading management to make an offer to right-handed free-agent
Ben Sheets. Every day Ben is not signed, his stock is going down and he becomes more and more of a bargain. He wants a two-year or more offer and no team out there seems to want to give him that offer.
The Pirates rotation is really young (all 27 years of age or younger) and could benefit greatly from having a quality veteran guy like Ben Sheets. Sheets was the National League starting pitcher at last year's All-Star game and has also made 3 other All-Star appearances in his 8 year career. He has a lifetime 3.72 ERA and went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 31 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers last year.
Now, offer him a 2-year $20 million deal and add an escalator clause to reach $25 million if he stays healthy. To those saying he wouldn't even consider playing for the Pirates, at this point he will look at anything that gets him back on the field for a price closer to what he's looking for. It wouldn't be a permanent fit and would only be a bargain stop-gap till players like Brad Lincoln and Bryan Morris are ready. When ready trade Ben Sheets away to a contending team for prospects. If we were to sign Ben this off-season, our rotation would look more normal with a real top of the rotation pitcher in Ben Sheets, followed by Ian Snell and Paul Maholm.
Anyway with that off my chest, here is more realistically what the 2009 rotation will look like: Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, Jeff Karstens.
Ian Snell, 27, looks to rebound after a difficult 2008 season, where he went 7-12, with a 5.42 ERA. Snell has a lot of good pitching traits, but most importantly he shows no fear on the mound. He is not afraid to throw against any hitter out there. Ryan Howard at the plate? No problem. He has a fastball that reaches well into the mid-90's, as well as a decent curve ball. Once he learns better command of his pitches, he will be an excellent pitcher. I see Ian once again becoming the leader and staff ace by the end of the season.
Paul Maholm, 26, looks to continue what he started last season as the Pirates current go to guy. Last year Paul went 9-9, with a 3.71 ERA. His biggest asset was his consistency to have control of his pitches. He was able to throw any number of his pitches (fastball, change-up, curve, slider) for first-pitch strikes. That is a huge plus for a Major League pitcher. Paul is doing his best to fill in the top of the rotation for us, as he typically would be a middle of the rotation pitcher.
Tom Gorzelanny, 26, had a real difficult 2008 as he was demoted down to AAA for an extended period of time before rejoining the club. His struggles might have been due to him being overused down the stretch of the 2007 season by Jim Tracy, but I look for him to turn it around this year. He is much healthier now and has a great arsenal of pitches. He has a nasty slider and a great change-up. Tom just needs to settle in with more first-pitch strikes and avoid that one blow-up inning.
Zach Duke, 25, was yet another one of our young pitchers who just absolutely blew-up last season. He was 5-14, with 4.82 ERA in 31 starts. It seemed like he got lit-up a lot in the first innings of the game but was able to settle down the second go around on hitters. He has been the topic of discussion this off-season and Joe Kerrigan has been working with him quite a bit. Duke doesn't tend to over power hitters with his fastball, which tops out at 93 MPH, but he has a wicked curveball. If he could set up pitches better and get more strike outs, he would see a vast improvement in his numbers.
The last rotation spot will likely come down between
Ross Ohlendorf and
Jeff Karstens. They both are 26 years of age and came from the Yankees organization during the Nady-Marte deal. Both are back-of-the rotation starters and also could be effective relievers. As I mentioned above, I would rather see Karstens be the one getting the starts in the 5th rotation spot and have Ohlendorf moved to the bullpen.
After being acquired by the Pirates at the end of July, Jeff Karstens started out 2-0 in August, with 15 scoreless innings. After that he seemed to fall apart, but everyone in Pittsburgh had already saw his potential. He nearly pitched a perfect game in Arizona in just his second start in a Pirates uniform. Jeff went 7 perfect innings before surrendering a double in the bottom of the 8th. He finished that game only allowing 2 hits and a walk, in a complete game shut-out to the Diamondbacks.
That wraps up the Pirates rotation discussion. Be sure to stop by later today as I will discuss the bullpen options for 2009.
*I apologize for being a day late with this discussion, as I was caught up with work for my classes.
Photo: Getty Images
Opening Day Roster Predictions is a five-part series where I will predict and discuss who I feel should be taking the field on the 25-man roster come Opening Day in April. 
Wow, what a game. I don't think you could of asked for much more in that game if you were a Steeler fan. Maybe you would of liked to see Willie Parker bust for a big run, but other than that this game had it all. 
